Tuesday, 25 January 2011

GDP - double dip recession or just a blip?

Figures released today by the Office for National Statistics show that in the last quarter UK plc's growth contracted by 0.5%.  Some analysts have speculated that fears about the impact of the Coalition's methods of dealing with the nation's budget deficit along with concerns about the VAT rise have had a negative impact on the public's appetite to spend - and this downturn in demand has had a knock on effect on supply.

Others have taken a more pragmatic approach believing that the real culprit in this ongoing financial drama is in fact ..... the snow! Indeed The Guardian banded a figure about in early December that the snow had hit the UK economy by £6 billion due to lost sales and extra costs to businesses as a direct consequence of staff being unable to get into work.

Whatever the reason, it is hoped that the Bank of England hold a steady nerve and delay the announcement of any increase in the base rate, which has been muted recently, until such a time that growth in GDP is both sustainable and long term.  Acting too hastily now could in fact jeopardise any of the, albeit, slow recovery to date.

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